Millions go to the polls today in Scotland. Voters will be asked a Yes/No question to decide if Scotland will become an independent country. The media circus surrounding the event blew its top last week after a poll showed a lead for the Yes Campaign. So what does this referendum mean for Scotland, the United Kingdom, and the rest of the world? The answer is "it means a Hell of a lot" particularly to nations with active separatists campaign (both peaceful and violent) such as Spain and China.
I for one don't buy the Scottish National Party's argument for independence, especially the economic arguments that serve as the cornerstones of the Yes campaign. Let's begin by focusing on the currency union the SNP hopes to continue with the United Kingdom if Scotland votes for independence. The plan is eerily similar to the Republic of Ireland's position until it joined the Euro Zone. Under the SNP plan, Scotland would keep the pound as its currency with interest rates and monetary policy set by the Bank of England across the border. Basically keeping the status quo intact, but with a newly independent Scotland using the pound, and no central authority over taxation and public spending, the value of the pound is likely to fall due to economic uncertainty north of any newly created international border. The uncertainty has already caused the value of the pound to take a dive.
Scotland's uncertain future in the European Union and the issue of trade deals also muddies the water. Though an independent Scotland would likely become a European Union member following a vote by European Union member states, don't expect countries with separatist groups and sharp ethnic devisions to welcome Scotland with open arms. It should come as little surprise that Spain continues to reiterate the fact that Scotland will need to apply to become a European Union state rather than just grandfathering in like the SNP originally hoped. Alex Salmond's response to statements made by the Spanish government earlier in the week was simply to quote figures about Scotland's share of Europe's fishing and oil industries.
Outside the common market, Scotland's position is even more uncertain and confusing. Will British bilateral trade agreements still stand apply to an independent Scotland? No one seems to have an answer. It's also important to remember that any agreement must be consensual anyway. Again, don't expect countries with their contrary political agendas to cut Scotland any slack, particularly China. Only a few weeks ago, the Chinese government expressed support for the rejection of independence. This should come as little surprise considering the increasing unrest in Xinjiang and its monolithic white elephant Tibet.
Watching the situation unfold from Beijing has proven quite entertaining. Six months ago, few people, least of which the Chinese media, would have predicted the surge in support for the Yes Campaign. Initially Chinese media printed stories about the referendum in a sly effort to mock the once all powerful British Empire. The same Empire that "lost" Hong Kong and fought two opium wars against a rotting Qing Dynasty. Most of the stories read like a bad Mad Magazine article. The main idea was usually "the British can't even hold Britain together anymore". A few weeks ago media stories over the issue dried up faster than spilt Artic Ocean (Beijing's favorite orange soda) on a hot summer day. The very nature of the vote shakes current Chinese politics to the core. A nation that is part of a union is voting whether to leave that union. Crazy notions for a country where any talk of independence is labelled separatism, and the offender usually disappears. Just ask prominent Uighur academic Mr. Tohti who was jailed earlier this week. Usually the entire democratic nature of the issue gets brushed aside likely because you need to live in Hong Kong or Macao to vote in China, and even then, you can only vote for "Patriotic" CPC approved candidates.
I am not Scottish, and I don't live in Scotland. From the perspective of the outsider looking in, the whole Yes campaign seems jingoistically nationalistic. Kilts and Saltires for everyone. As immigrants continue to come to England from Europe and elsewhere, I am not surprised that the demographically stagnate Scotland is facing an identity crisis. But no one has done a very good job of convincing me that independence will fix any of Scotland's problems. The nation would likely just have to face the harsh truth that they held their future in their hands the whole time. Wether they fly the Union Flag or the Saltire over Holyrood or not.
